Category Valuations

More Tricks than Treats?

The market is up around 11% from its recent lows. Its rallying on the hope of a dovish Fed. My advice is tread carefully... you might get 'tricked' rather than 'treated' this Halloween. The upside does not handily outweigh the downside risks. Bear markets are known to do just that...

We’ve Seen This Script Before

Q3 2022 big-tech earnings are behind us - with only one winner. Apple reported inline results with weak guidance - but enough to send the stock 7% higher. The rest however were slaughtered on weak earnings and forward guidance. But it was the Facebook's "metacurse" which sent the stock reeling almost 30%... Amazon was also crushed on a poor Q4 outlook.

Bear Market Rally Approaching Resistance

My best guess is the current 11% bear market rally could go a little further yet (e.g. maybe 5-6%). However we are now approaching a technical area of resistance. I also offer a new trade on TLT... on the thesis that yields will reverse course at some point in 2023

Short Term Rip… Then a Bigger Dip

Another bear market rally or something else? My view is the former until proven otherwise. For me, we need to see yields and the dollar peak. But in the meantime - don't be surprised to see this market add 10%+ before pulling back.

The Most Important Thing We’re Yet to See

Stocks are rallying as bond yields and the dollar index are pulling back. But I would temper any enthusiasm - this remains a very bearish market. Why earnings expectations need to come down.

Tech May Catch a Short Term Bid – But It’s Expensive

Stocks look set to rally a little in the near-term from oversold levels. However, act with caution, as they are looking expensive given the environment of expected EPS decline.

August Wasn’t Kind… Don’t Expect Sept to be Better

August wasn't kind for stocks - with the S&P 500 losing 4.2%. The market is now just 8.8% off the June 3636 low... expect this to be retested

The Case for Retesting the June Lows

It would be remiss of investors to rule out a retest of the June lows. This post explains my reasons not just technically (which has served us well) -- but more so fundamentally. Have we fully priced in the impact of where rates are likely to head in addition to QT?