The RBA’s Dilemma… When Things Go WrongThis week we will hear from the Fed on monetary policy...They're expected to not only announce imminent plans to reduce their $120B monthly bond purchases (as early as November) - but are likely to shed more light on their timing of rate rises.
Fed’s Inflation Gauge Hits Fresh 30-Yr HighInflation is ripping higher and the Fed are acting like a dear in the headlights. All the whilst, today marks the sixth consecutive quarter in which the bottom-up EPS estimate increased during the first month of the quarter... a record. There's a lot of cheap money around - but it's coming at a cost; i.e. inflation
“Bits vs Bytes” for Big Tech EarningsThe collective market caps of Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Apple are north of ~$9 Trillion. To put that into perspective, the entire sum of the S&P 500 is ~$38 Trillion; FMAGA is ~24% of the entire market.
FB, GOOG and MSFT Report – What Did we Learn?This post looks at the latest results for Alphabet (Google); Facebook and Microsoft. In short, each of these stocks deserves a solid place in your long-term portfolio.
Big Tech Earnings on Tap… as Bond Yields JumpEarlier this week I said bond yields are now calling Jay Powell's bluff. My take is bonds sense higher inflation ahead (at least for next year). And as we know - 'bond markets are typically early... but generally right'...
Inflation: Here Today… Gone Tomorrow?Rates are almost certain to rise... evidenced by what we see with the 10-year yield and break-even rates.
As a result, when rates do rise, this will temper demand. However, it will do nothing to ease the supply bottlenecks across the world.
Markets Rally as Economy SlowsMarkets have a "Q4 spring" in their step. After a bit of a September swoon - the most volatile month of the year (on average) - has started well... higher prices look likely
Chinese Stocks: Ultra-High Risk… But is this Trade Worth It?Trading and investing is very much about understanding the risk vs the reward. In fact, it's far more about the former than the latter. What can potentially go wrong with this trade? How much do I stand to lose if things don't work out? Can I afford to take that risk? That's your basic equation with any investment. Gold, bonds, property, stocks... you name it. For e.g., staying in cash carries risk - as it will lose at least 5% of its value over the next 12+ months.
Jobs Disappoint (again)… But Yields RiseThere are two monthly data 'prints' (above all others) which are said to shape the Fed's timing on any imminent taper: (1) employment; and (2) inflation. Re the former - hiring in the U.S. fell far below expectations last month, with employers adding just 194,000 jobs versus the expected 500,000
Trading Per the ScriptOctober is certainly one of the more 'opportunistic' months of the year (in my view) - however it comes with a bad rap. October is a whopping 36% more volatile than the other months (on average). But don't let volatility like today scare you...
