Bear Market Rally? Or ‘the’ Bottom for 2022?Some feel the bottom could be in for 2022. They might be right. Who knows? Sentiment has not been this negative since 2008. However, I think probabilities still favour lower lows.
Can Netflix Turn its Business Around? Netflix lost 1M subscribers over Q2 2022. That's 1M less than expected however it's not great. However, there are 4 things Netflix can do to turn things around... and there's room for optimism. But can they do it?
Remain Vigilant When Adding RiskOver the next few weeks we will hear how US companies navigated a difficult Q2. More importantly, we will also receive guidance looking forward. This will lead to analysts lowering their earnings targets... something the stock market is yet to price in.
JP Morgan Warns of ‘Negative Consequences’There's a very good reason why inflation is likely to come down next year... the dramatic slowing of (M2) money supply growth. However, we will have uncomfortably high inflation for at least 6-9 months yet.
CPI Exceeds 9% YoY – Fed to Stay the CourseCPI for June was a white-hot 9.1% YoY. But should that be a surprise? Not really. What it does suggest is two consecutive rate hikes of 75 basis points... however most of that has been priced in.
Negative Impact of Labor Costs on EarningsThere are three things I want to see before I utter the words "the bottom is in". One of those three are Q3 earnings revisions... they are coming and this is one big reason why...
Sell this Bounce… and Why NZ is Worth WatchingWe are in the midst of a bear market rally - but I don't trust it for three reasons. Separately, is New Zealand a canary in the coal mine regarding the impact of raising interest rates?
Recession: The ‘Cost’ of Unwanted InflationToday the Fed reminded us they have one objective (and only one): to bring inflation back to its target level of 2.0%. However, the unspoken narrative was sacrifices will need to be made (i.e. expect a recession)
Here’s What We Still Need to SeeThere are three primary things we still need to see before we can confidently claim we are close to a market bottom in 2022... the first is a pivot from the Fed.
Worst 6-Months to Start a Year Since 1970It's becoming increasingly likely we will see a recession next year (maybe before). And there's one thing that every recession has in common post 1950 -- aggressive Fed tightening into a slowing economy.
